So, I mean, there is correlative evidence, at least, that Donald Trump is doing very well in the same areas that are hardest hit by this. Glasser: Angus, what is your view about how much Trump is successfully speaking to this demographic trend that you have identified?ĭeaton: Well, we know that the Washington Post, bless them, did a very nice graphic in the primaries showing, county by county, the fraction of people who were voting for Trump and the fraction of people who were dying of what we call “deaths of despair.” And those are very, very highly correlated in most states. When we try to create a voting bloc and we use one term to describe them-whether it’s ‘the black vote’ or ‘the women vote,’ now it’s ‘the working class vote’-I think that can be really misleading.” Anne Case So, I don’t think there’s that much parallel between the two phenomena. A lot of what was happening in the Soviet Union was their mortality rates were artificially low before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Also, I think the Soviet Union was a lot to do with the fact that Mikhail Gorbachev had had a very successful anti-alcohol campaign, and when the Soviet Union collapsed, the anti-alcohol campaign collapsed, too, so that if you look at mortality rates among Russians after the crisis, they’re not very far away from being on trend. Alcohol plays a part here, but opioids and heroin play a much larger part. The Soviet Union was largely alcohol-fueled. In the United States, this is not men only. One thing about the Soviet Union, as many people have drawn that comparison, is that the trend there was men only. China and trade and globalization and slow wage growth have hit many European countries, and you just don’t see this increase in the death rate in Europe at all. But, you know, that’s happened in Europe, too. So, we’re talking about white non-Hispanics without a college degree.Īs far as the campaigns, the obvious story which everybody sort of seized on, including Joe Stiglitz, who is advising Hillary Clinton, was this has to do with the stagnation of wages over a long period of time. The second thing is that this is much worse for people who have a high school degree and no B.A. It’s a much older phenomenon, before the turn of the century. So, this is not something that happened after the financial crash, for instance. Two things that are relevant for thinking about why, though, are first, that this started in the late ’90s. Why is this happening to these people?Īngus Deaton, Princeton University economist: Well, I don’t think we know the answer to that, and we’ve been very careful not to speculate beyond what we have the data on. Glenn Thrush: When I first read it, I was struck by the parallel between that and what happened to males after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And that resonated in this political season. And it appears to be happening all over the country. Partly the surprise is that it is not just men it is men and women.
Phantasmagoria game wtf is wrong with these people drivers#
And, with the Centers for Disease Control also redocumenting what we had done, the big drivers in that trend are what we call “deaths of despair,” which are suicide, drug overdose and alcohol-related liver disease. Susan Glasser: I’d love to just jump right in and ask each of you: What is going on with America’s white people, and how much is that driving the Trump phenomenon in this year’s election?Īnne Case, Princeton University economist: Angus and I touched a nerve last fall when we published a piece in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that documented that, among white non-Hispanics in middle age, mortality, after having fallen for large parts of the last century, actually turned up and started to go the wrong way. In a way, they all said, the discontent that propelled Trump to the nomination has been a long time coming. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, a bestselling memoir about working-class white culture. Do poor white Americans suddenly feel more disgruntled than ever, or are the rest of us just now paying attention? How much of their pique has to do with economic factors versus matters of race or, simply, health? And what does it all mean for American politics-in 2016 and beyond? To answer those questions and more, Politico editor Susan Glasser and chief political correspondent Glenn Thrush convened four scholars from our Politico 50 list who have studied the history of white people in America and documented their recent troubles Thrush also interviewed J.D. But his popularity among these voters has also put an unexpected spotlight on their grievances-whether they feel left behind by globalization and immigration or resentful of an elite political class that seems to ignore them. Glenn Thrush is Politico ’s chief political correspondent.ĭonald Trump’s appeals to working-class white Americans have no doubt stoked racial tensions.
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